Interest Rate Hikes, Local Inventory Levels, and Subprime Fraud Lip Service

Yes, the picture to the left is as accurate a depiction of how us real estate folks feel after the week we just endured.

Let's see what I can isolate as the 3 biggest issues that have come onto my radar screen for this second week of June...

Mortgage interest rates. UP, UP, and AWAY!!!

UP to 6.5 percent for conforming mortgages this week, even as high as 6.75% at one point. Good luck getting that quote to stick for more than a couple of hours.

UP again, for Jumbo Mortgages (over $417,000 of loan amount), reaching as high as 8.675 or higher. Jumbo's affect the luxury housing market in Chicago's far western suburbs, the Tri-Cities of St. Charles, Geneva and Batavia, certainly. They also affect modest dwellings in the nearer suburbs, like Oak Park or Arlington Heights (to stab blindly), where prices are substantially higher. The crowd of buyers that can afford a half-million dollar mortgage at close to 9% interest is an understandably small one, and they expect a lot more for their money nowadays.

Rates have been attributed to tough talk about inflation from the U.S. Federal Reserve. As I look at overall economic news, I start to wonder if housing isn't a small problem in the macro-picture. It seems that Ben and friends thought the same thing, and it caused a small ripple in the mortgage bond market, as concerns that bond values would drop in the face of higher rates (impacted by rate hikes at the Fed) over the next few months.

And AWAY! Away with mortgage perps'. Good to see that they've nabbed every last mortgage fraud'ster. 400 of our "finest" real estate practitioners were hauled off to jail for inflating stated incomes, misleading values or uses for properties, and other fraudulent tactics used to secure for loans. As the AP line depicts, the real victims in the subprime mess is "consumers" and "lenders." Consumers are the everyday folks who never fibbed on their stated incomes, source of funds (gifts depicted as savings, etc.), or never really heard or understood that their loans were adjustible. Lenders, we are told, were blissfully unaware of the sources of their record crushing revenues. The next step is arresting oil company executives, and then our ever-benevolent government will likely give us free gasoline out of the goodness of their hearts.

Looking at the data for housing inventory levels, locally, I am not yet inspired to announce the end of the housing downturn. Taking a closer look at our months' supply of inventory in the Tri-City area, you'll note that we are well above last year's inventory level, caused by fewer sales and more homes listed for sale. Foreclosures, of limited importance last spring and summer, are taking a heavier toll on the local market, along with short sales. Failed rehabs and new construction gluts, however, are far less prevalent this time around.

80% Down on Condo's May Spell B-A-R-G-A-I-N for Buyers

Looking for a steal on a condo or townhome in Chicagoland? You might find that the prices are good, but not nearly as exciting as the slashed values asked for detached homes. In fact, many areas in Chicagoland have relatively "normal" inventory levels for condo's and townhouses. Surprising, I know. And by "normal," I mean that 6 months or less of available inventory is on the market - 6 months or more typically indicating a buyers market, and common levels for detached homes hovering between 10 and 18 months.

The arrival of new lending rules may begin to change that trend, and bring similar woes that have struck the detached home market to the attached segment. Because of the effect foreclosures have had on associations (in states like Florida or California), Condominium values are particularly subject to volatility in value. When a buyer's cost for a property includes a downpayment, mortgage payment, property tax (or monthly escrow), and monthly association dues, that lattermost aspect is integral to deciding how much one can afford. If an owner in foreclosure is skipping out on association dues, the difference needs to be ether a.) picked up by other dues payers (that cost is distributed amongst the others), or b.) ammentities need to be eliminated, and the overall "attractiveness" of that condo declines. Knowing this, and wanting to avoid the mistakes made in places like Miami, lenders see 80% loan-to-value ratios (20% downpayments) as the solution.

I know, I know, this is BAD news for sellers. But FHA mortgages are an exception. If your condo can be approved as an FHA property, and pass FHA inspection, then buyers can mortgage up to 97% of the value (ok, someone might be able to do 100% for you, you never know). This does not change the effect that the new rules have on values. The less buyers can afford, the less you can sell for.

For buyers, however, they will soon be seeing this "play out" in the form of falling condo prices. While we're all brainwashed into believing that prices are lower across the board, condos have not made the same kind of adjustment in the Chicagoland area as have detached homes, and that may be changing shortly...

Comparing the Counties

Last month we compared areas from the interior and collar counties as to the level of housing inventory. This month, we'll generalize to gather as broad a trend as possible (and avoid comparing cities that are the exception to their area's "rule"). Additionally, we are removing New Construction homes from the equation. Not because new construction home sales are in any way not significant, but because builders often enter vacant land as built homes for sale - they are casting as wide a net as possible right now. We refer to some of these listings as "phantom listings," as they are not really properties "on the market." The vacant homes for sale are an important factor in this market, but the distortion is greater than you would ever expect.

Cook County

DuPage County

Kane County

DeKalb County

Starting in Cook County, we have gathered information along the Union Pacific West Metra Line, or going West, with DuPage, Kane, and DeKalb Counties. Tomorrow we'll contrast this data with the Northwest and Southwest suburban areas.

What's interesting about this data, is that ACROSS THE BOARD these counties have halved the total inventory level highs from this past December. These levels, however, have not receded to last year's lows, which were in March and April. It should definitely be noted, with this snapshot of the market's health, that by broadening the scope of examination, we are also amalgamating such areas as the Gold Coast with the east side of Elgin, or Northwest Aurora with downtown Geneva.

Stay tuned for tomorrow's data.

Showing Activity as Leading Indicator for Sales?

Before a home sells, it must be shown. I dare you to try and dispute that fact.

As real estate brokerages arrange appointments for buyers agents to show listed homes to their clients, they create data. ShowingTime.com, known to agents as "ShowingDesk," is the premier online service provider for setting appointments. It is used by my broker, Baird & Warner, along with 40 other brokerages - from the big national brokerages to the independent regional ones. The data recorded for each appointment is logically one of the best indicators of market sales activity, as the more a property is shown, the more likely a buyer will write an offer, and the more likely that agreeable terms can be found, leading to a visit to a closing table.

I track my office's showing activity (above), in addition to online views of each individual property's webpage. In comparing this with a given property's number of showings, I can gauge how well a property is doing, relative to other indicators. ShowingTime.com offers us a snapshot of the nation-wide sales picture, by comparing the percent increase or decrease of showings, and the published record of closed sales. Or, at least, in theory.

If we are to believe the suggestion of ShowingTime.com's graph, then the upsurge of showing activity in March should have yielded a very positive April for home sales. While there was a definite increase (see graphs below), there is another trend represented in ShowingTime's graph: More showings per buyer. This is a definite trend in the marketplace, as buyers take more time to decide the right home for themselves. A buyer can see more houses, and have less worry over their "favorite" getting sold out from under their noses.

The data above, taken from Kane County, IL, includes April's sales number for Under Contract and Closed properties (both detached and attached residential housing). It does reflect an increase in the number of properties sold, but those numbers reflect a decrease as compared with last year's seasonal figures. April 2007 sales in Kane County amounted to 552 Closed properties, while April 2008 yielded 339. The number of properties that have gone under contract in April (606 in '07, 506 in '08), will inevitably revise downwards as transactions under contract fail to result in a closing (due to home inspection, mortgage financing, or other problems encountered).

It seems as though ShowingTime's March report reflects the dispositions of buyers towards a more thorough and deliberative home search, and not a surge indicating housing's recovery by summer time. An uptick, yes, but comparing year-over-year data gives us the whole story. There may not be any dispute to this post's leading statement, but plenty is left to argue for ShowingIndex's direct correlation to sales activity.

Condo's/Townhomes Vs. Detached Homes

As some readers may have noted, a trend has been playing out through this real estate cycle that deserves mention: Townhouses & condominiums are not in the same trough of this cycle as detached single family homes are.

St. Charles Detached Homes

St. Charles Attached Homes

In fact, attached houses are actually in territory that indicates they are neutral as to being a buyers/sellers market. This sample was taken of strictly St. Charles, Illinois, but I am seeing this play out through much of the suburban area. Looking at the market time statistics, below, one can see that attached properties are selling in less than 180 days, on average.

St. Charles Attached Market Times

Why is this happening? Three factors are at play- lower prices for attached properties put them within the reach of cautious first time homebuyers; todays buyer is looking for a more "move-in ready" home - less tolerance for major renovations that often come with older single family detached homes; and buyers often do not have time to do the yardwork and maintenance that goes along with a detached home. Today's buyer is changing, which has affected families and individuals selling their homes. With the challenges of being a "move-up" buyer in this market, first time buyers are a major driving force, despite the drastic reduction in their ranks due to the extinction of many high risk loan instruments that brought more first timers into the buying process than ever before.

[note: Market time statistics are problematic because of real estate agents cancelling or expiring property listings, and then re-listing them the same day. This is done in order to reintroduce a property to the "hotsheet." This is part of the reason that I utilize absorption statistics to indicate realistic expected market times.]

How are Chicagoland's Condos & Townhouses Selling?

Many home buyers today are looking to take advantage of great prices on condominiums and townhouses. When it comes to buying a condo, location is paramount, and different areas in Chicagoland are in very different stages of this downturn in the real estate cycle. Looking at a market's absorption rate tells you how "backlogged" the market presently is- How many properties are for sale, divided by how many have sold in recent months, and if that rate stays constant, how many months will it take to sell them all? This is a great indicator of future price direction, year-over-year improvement or decline, and the relative health of one area versus another.

Those of you wondering what makes a buyers market versus a sellers market? Absorption rates of well over 6 months should tell you that it is a buyers market. It is a buyers market in much of Chicagoland, but not all areas are created equal.

I've picked one community from North, Northwest, West, Near West, South West, and South Suburbs, as well as a popular Chicagoland neighborhood just outside of the loop. You will notice that the market has improved from the winter's heavy saturation, but pay close attention to where 2008 March statistics are in contrast to March of 2007. Just click on the graphs to see each one in greater detail. I sampled Evanston, Schaumburg, St. Charles, Oak Park, Naperville, Orland Park, and Lincoln Park.

Evanston

Schaumburg

St. Charles

Oak Park

Naperville

Orland Park

Lincoln Park

What should we make of all of this? It tells me that there is a looming reduction in list prices and selling prices coming out of the near west suburbs, and the southwestern suburbs.

Theory: Based on the perspective that the "epicenter" of values resides in Chicagoland's city limits, one assumes that prices become lower the further away one travels from Chicago. If one area has a higher inventory to be worked off, then prices will drop, causing the next-furthest area to experience a stagnation in sales. Then as that area accumulates inventory, sellers recognize the need to reduce prices. As they act, inventory drops, and the process continues. As an area further out drops in price and experiences a wave of inventory absorption, the desirability of the closer area then diminishes, as a longer distance from the "epicenter" becomes acceptable to homebuyers. This eventually causes the process to start over again - inventory builds at the epicenter, prices drop, and as buyers eventually reach their limit to how far they will live from the epicenter, they decide that as prices in the epicenter reach a lower level, justification for the still more expensive, but closer, purchase arises once more.

Absorption is just below the 6 month mark in Lincoln Park, and around the Northern and Western collars of Chicagoland it is hovering at or around 6 months. It remains at higher levels in the near west and southwest suburbs. Based on this ideology, it would seem that near-west suburbs may experience a period of depreciation, with the farther western and southwestern suburbs then experiencing a greater increase in inventory.

Is Chicagoland moving towards Milwaukee? Is Joliet and Kendall County growth justifying a Peotone Airport & subsequent Southwest suburban buildup? These trends strike down any notion regarding "The Loop" as the epicenter for real estate values, and the movement of values based on proximity to downtown Chicago. Any idiot knows that values vary drastically across the north and south sides of Chicagoland. If that is the case, then are these areas independent of one another in their progression through the real estate cycle?