Syllogisms in Real Estate

As someone with a philosophy education background it was nice to see another Real Estate pro struck with a strain of the very same affliction. The following syllogism was offered up by Dan Green, the "Aristotle" of mortgage lending (whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, sorry Dan!), in his blog "The Mortgage Reports":

1. Mortgage bond markets are unpredictable.
2. Mortgage bond markets dictate mortgage interest rates.
3. Therefore, mortgage interest rates are unpredictable.

As many know through inductive reasoning, or life experience, "waiting to lock" is akin to "going to the boat" to lower your mortgage rate. Dan's syllogism helps those "greener" individuals who do not yet have first-hand experience as to the virtues of locking, by offering a deductive form of reasoning. Well done.

I can attest, from personal experience, that not locking makes home buyers into day traders during the "under contract" phase of their home buying experience. With zero experience, and a very rudamentary understanding of exactly how the mortgage bond market functions, they expect to outsmart mutual & pension fund managers, professional traders, and computer trading programs. With all of the other stresses introduced by purchasing a home, this seems like a lofty endeavor!

Source
The Mortgage Reports
http://www.themortgagereports.com/2008/04/what-aristotle.html